The trading/finishing game has been red hot through late winter. In stark contrast breeding stock appear to be falling out of favour as trading and finishing taking preference. It’s not hard to see why, with the way the market has moved in recent months. The march of forestry has had a significant impact on breeding numbers in recent years.
Breeding is a long game, raising the potential to miss heated market movements. But it remains a crucial cog in the wheel. Without breeding numbers, we will continue to fight for store stock, therefore pushing prices beyond sustainable levels. Unfortunately we are now playing catch up in terms of understanding just how many breeding stock units have disappeared.
Beef + Lamb NZ’s recent stock survey report indicated in the last five years a decline of 140,000 breeding cows. Expanding that to 10 years for sheep, and we have seen a decline of 5.4 million breeding ewes. This ultimately means lower calf and lamb crops every spring which flows through to less store stock and therefore lower production and exports.
We have seen the ramifications of reduced stock numbers versus demand this year. Some will argue that lower stock numbers will naturally increase returns. Domestically maybe, but we are bordering on becoming a niche global player for lamb and barely holding on to a top-five spot for beef exporting. Our ability to influence global market prices is reducing as quickly as our breeding base.
We only have to look at the growth of Australia’s livestock industry in recent years to understand we are quickly moving in opposite directions.
Australia’s sheep flock is currently at a 17-year high of 79m head, bolstered by significant growth in their breeding numbers, sitting at 49m –2024 will stand as the largest lamb slaughter year on record at 27.7m head. Even with some expected flock consolidation, lamb slaughter in 2025 and 2026 will be larger than the preceding 19 years.
A larger flock, coupled with advancements in productivity has placed Australian lamb producers in the box seat, meaning they are well positioned to capitalise on forecast global demand growth. It’s much the same for Australian beef. Although cattle numbers peaked in 2023, the cyclical nature of production means slaughter rates won’t peak until 2025. This means elevated production and exports in the short to medium term and once again the ability to capture any opportunities that arise.
More: Subscribe to AgriHQ Livestock reports to receive the full report. Key points discussed in the this week’s North Island report include: beef and lamb projections in New Zealand and key international markets such the UK, the US, Australia and Asia.
In Focus Podcast | A new strategy for advocacy
AGMARDT and KPMG have released a report that offers a new way of organising our advocacy networks. Common Ground assesses the positives and negatives of the advocacy groups we have now and sets out a strategy that could improve the collaboration and messaging emanating from the farming world. AGMARDT general manager Lee-Ann Marsh joins Bryan to discuss the report.
