Greenhouse gas emissions have fallen every year since 2019, but a new monitoring report warns greater effort is needed from agriculture and transport if we are to meet future budgets.
A Climate Change Commission monitoring report reveals the country’s gross emissions fell 4.2% between 2021-2022, having fallen on average 2.5% each year since 2019.
It concludes that New Zealand is on track to meet its 2025 emissions target with agricultural sector emissions falling 2.7% from 42.9Mt/CO2 in 2020 to 41.7Mt/CO2 in 2022. They peaked at 43.3Mt/CO2 in 2014.
Biogenic methane emissions fell 1.6% from 2019 to 2022.
Gross emissions fell in every sector from 2021-22 with three-quarters of that decline coming from energy and industry, but an estimated 94% of that reduction was due to factors outside government control.
The commission attributes the decline in agricultural emissions to land use changing from livestock to forestry, less use of nitrogen fertiliser and a high uptake of urease inhibitors.
The country’s overall emissions reduction was due to government policy, the adoption of low emissions technology such as renewable energy generation, converting boilers to biomass and electricity, more electric and hybrid vehicles, and forestry planting.
“These emissions reductions largely rely on variable factors that could change in any year, for example high rainfall which supported higher hydroelectricity generation and less power generation from coal and gas.
“The rate of emissions reductions seen in 2022 is therefore unlikely to continue.”
It warns insufficient action to reduce emissions from the agricultural and transport sector put at risk targets for the second and third emissions budgets and the 2030 biogenic methane target.
“If there are insufficient reductions in gross emissions for the second emissions budget, 2026-2030, this cannot be made up by increased removals of carbon dioxide through forestry.
“Additional forest planting can no longer make much difference to this period, because the rates of increase of carbon removal through trees is slow in the early stages of new plantings.”
The commission warns agricultural emissions may not fall as rapidly due to the sector not being included in the NZ Emissions Trading Scheme, the failure of He Waka Eke Noa and delays in implementing a price on emissions.
“The absence of a confirmed emissions pricing system or alternative policy measures that will incentivise reductions in agricultural emissions creates a risk of the country not being on track to meet the second emissions budget (2026-2030) and third emissions budget (2031-2035) and the biogenic methane components of the 2050 target.”
It also warns of a lack of clarity in government plans to manage the impact of emission reduction policy.
The commission says for NZ to achieve its emissions budgets and meet the 2050 target, a well-designed policy package that can deliver cost-effective and durable climate action is needed.
“The areas that could have the biggest impact for driving down emissions are in decarbonising electricity supply, decarbonising industry, reducing on-farm emissions, adopting low- and zero-emissions vehicles, and land use change to forestry,” said Climate Change Commission chair Rod Carr.
“Together, these could deliver around three-quarters of what’s needed for the second and third emissions budget.”
