The primary sector will have to rely on new tools and technologies to lower its emissions if it is to hit its targets outlined in the government’s newly released draft emissions reduction plan.
The second emissions reduction plan for 2026-2030 discussion document has been released for consultation. It outlines actions intended by the government to meet the second emissions budget (2026–30) and put the country on a pathway to reach net zero emissions by 2050 at least cost.
For agriculture, these actions amount to creating and enabling an environment where farmers and growers have the right tools and technologies to cost-effectively reduce their emissions without having to reduce production.
The document reaffirms the government’s commitment to price emissions in the agriculture sector from 2030.
Proposals outside of farming include targeting 10,000 electric vehicle chargers by 2030, investigating carbon capture and storage, faster and cheaper consents for renewable electricity generation, better public transport, improving organic waste and landfill gas capture, and more investment in resource recovery systems and infrastructure that processes organic waste.
New Zealand is on target to meet its first and second emissions budgets covering 2022-2025 and 2026-2030 respectively.
The third emissions budget, for 2031-2035, has a maximum all gas discharge of 240 Mt CO2-e. Its current “central” estimates have New Zealand emitting 257.4 Mt CO2-e, 17 million tonnes over the budget.
While the document emphasises the uncertainty of long-term predictions, its central estimate falls 3 Mt CO2-e short of the 2050 target.
The document says the government is committed to ensuring producers have the tools and technologies to reduce emissions while maintaining productivity and profitability.
“This technology-led approach is critical to supporting fair and sustainable pricing of agricultural emissions no later than 2030.”
Some of these tools are yet to be commercialised, including low-methane sheep genetics and EcoPond, a treatment to significantly reduce methane emissions from dairy effluent ponds.
“We expect these new tools will be commercially available to New Zealand’s pasture-based farmers from 2027-2028.”
Tools for reducing nitrous oxide emissions are already in use, including that 60% of urea fertiliser sold in 2023 was coated with a urease inhibitor, which reduces nitrogen loss. Officials expect that this will increase to 80% in 2030, assuming voluntary uptake. “The most impactful solutions, such as methane inhibitors and vaccines, are several years away from use or are still at an early stage of research.”
Also included in the document are plans to standardise the tools used to calculate on-farm emissions.
“We are developing a standardised calculation methodology for greater consistency, and to support on-farm emissions measurement by 2025.
“Standardised methods are not expected to lead to direct reductions in the second and third emissions budgets but could be important in Scope 3 reporting to our key markets and customers.”
The document reinforces the government’s commitment to follow a “least cost” policy when it comes to emissions reductions. It sees the Emissions Trading Scheme as the best tool the government has to reduce net emissions at least cost.
Its modelling assumes a price path where prices continue to rise to $75 per tonne in 2028 but then fall to a long-run price of $50 per tonne (in 2023 dollar values) from 2035.
Afforestation is also major tool to reduce carbon for future budgets. The document says the government is exploring opportunities to partner with the private sector to plant trees.
“This includes native afforestation on Crown land (other than national parks) that is unsuitable for farming and has low conservation value.
“Planting offers potential for economic return and for greater carbon sequestration to meet New Zealand’s emissions budgets and targets. Native forests can provide a long-term carbon sink and co-benefits, including biodiversity and adaptation value,” it says.
Native forests are better suited to steep and erosion-prone land as they are more able to withstand extreme weather. However, the current costs of native afforestation makes it uneconomic compared with exotic planting so the government is interested in exploring partnerships to improve the incentives for native planting.
The Ministry for Primay Industries, Land Information New Zealand and the Department of Conservation will assess the amount of land likely to be available for planting.
Decisions on which species will be planted, and where, will be based on the suitability of the land and the opportunities for planting partnerships.
