By Jasper van Halder, CEO of agribusiness venture capital firm Agnition
My job as CEO of an agribusiness venture capital firm means most days I scour the globe – by desk and plane – for the latest and greatest agritech technologies to invest in and bring home to our farmers and growers.
On a visit to my native Netherlands last month, I noticed some recent big changes in the perspective of these Western European consumers toward meat and dairy consumption, and organic and sustainable products. They were surprising to me, and may offer a glimpse into the direction of where these consumers are going.
We were in Amsterdam, Utrecht, and Nijmegen – the more urban parts of the country, but the markets with the money to buy New Zealand foods.
Now, these are purely qualitative and anecdotal observations, but they struck a chord. Whether they’re early warnings for our sheep, beef and dairy industries or just passing food trends, they served as a vivid reminder that we need to stay attuned to ever-shifting consumer perceptions.
First up: meat consumption. Remember when you had to specify if you were vegetarian at work dinners? In the Netherlands, it seems to have completely flipped. You’re more likely to be asked if you eat meat.
After eating out in a popular “pure food” restaurant with small suppliers and seasonal products only, I asked my friend where my I could find my favourite “steak with frites”. “That’s not a thing anymore,” was the answer.
The statistics bear the comment out. Although 95% of the Dutch are still meat eaters, the proportion of meat in their diet is falling. The number of self-declared “flexitarians” is closing in on half the population. Twenty-five percent of main meals of the day do not include meat, and this trend seems to have drastically accelerated post covid.
And what about dairy? I got some funny looks when I asked for “normal” milk with my coffee. Someone commented, “There’s nothing normal about raising animals just to get something for your coffee.” Ouch.
So clearly, dairy, our biggest export, is equally caught up in this change among high-value consumers. The average European drinks 25% less milk than two decades ago.
It’s not all bad news. Athletes and gym bunnies in the same high-value demographic are doubling-down on high-protein, dairy-packed energy drinks and muesli bars.
A fascinating branding trend was the quality mark “meadow milk”. This high-end product boasted that its cows had spent at least 120 days, or six hours a day, outside in the paddock. That’s four months of the year, and only one-twelfth of all the time they’re alive. We do better than that.
When I asked people what they thought of “meadow milk,” they didn’t seem too impressed.
This is a critical consumer perception issue for New Zealand, because the core of our production methods and – we think – market value, is production of animals and plants using the natural gifts of our outdoor environment.
So, I took special notice of milk cartons proudly advertising how much the producers spent on planting trees on farms. New Zealand producers have not started doing this, even though we can claim much better.
A completely different new trend was the rise of “vin naturel”, or “nature wine”. It’s the cooler sibling of organic wine, made from grapes grown without chemicals, mechanical harvesting, or much intervention from winemakers – no temperature control, no added sulphites – which supposedly means no hangovers.
This trend has grown in contrast with a steady fall in wine consumption across the European Union – and especially of French wines. My fellow drinkers said Bordeaux wines were out of favour because the traditional producers would not “adapt to new consumer trends”. A warning for all of us.
Some non-ag-related trends fill out what New Zealand is up against. Recycling has moved beyond plastics and bottles. Consumers are buying rental clothing subscriptions rather than buying new garments. Biodiversity is going street-level, with authorities offering subsidies for removing street tiles and planting wildflowers in cityscapes.
All these shifting trends may only be mildly visible in lagging consumer consumption statistics, but they are very visible at the European supermarket, restaurant and bottle store. What I witnessed was a great cultural shift in attitudes and intention, and it happened fast. Trends we may dismiss as fashionable talk are changing what is offered to consumers.
I’ll finish with one huge trend that buoyed me. The extent of conversion of farming to solar farms is readily visible as you drive across the Netherlands. I couldn’t help thinking that for each farm closed there, wealthy European consumers need part of a New Zealand farm to stay open. We’ve just got to serve up ingredients that such a community wants to eat.
