The autumn cull cow offload often stretches from March to May before numbers start to seasonally decline into June. It’s well known that through this period, cattle space at processing plants is usually hard to come by. Especially when you throw in reduced production weeks around Easter and Anzac Day.
But in a strange turn of events, this year there have been very few accounts of space restrictions at processing plants. Which raises the question – where are all the cows?
The cumulative South Island cow kill is down 8.2% compared to last season. The North is fairly steady, up 3.6%. Season to date (to April 13), the national cow slaughter stands at 437,878 head, only 0.9% less than last year.
The exodus from dairy farming of a lot of smaller players has played a large part in the apparent lack of cows seen at the end of their life cycle. This is most likely a factor in this year’s unusual dynamic in procurement, bucking a few price trends in the saleyard and the schedule.
The AgriHQ procurement indicator for cows usually hits its lowest level around this time of year, before climbing upward into July. This year, our procurement indicator has been stable since mid-April.
Better conditions to keep cows on farm in the North Island’s main dairy regions kept a fair few cattle away from the processors. The favourable summer growth period left a lot of rough tucker on farm after summer, making this class an attractive option for grazing.
An El Niño autumn has kept cows dry underfoot right through until May. Not to mention the improved conception rates for dairy cows this season and the elevated milk price made it a no-brainer for dairy farmers to keep milking as long as possible.
This has applied some of the extra pressure to keep meat on hooks from a processing perspective, even more so when you consider the favourable export market conditions out of the United States.
The North Island cow slaughter price has held close to $4/kg since February. In the North Island this week, the slaughter price is 20c/kg above year-ago levels and over 30c/kg above the five-year average.
In the South Island, the cow slaughter price is fairly steady on year-ago levels and only a few cents higher than the five-year average at $3.30/kg.
In the North Island saleyards, the bulk of the cull cow sales are shared between Feilding and Frankton. Both saleyards sold close to 6900 boner cows in 2023, with numbers increasing slightly this year. Processors have snapped up most of these cows, though grazing interest kept prices competitive.
Prices for cull Friesian cows at Frankton have been consistently higher than year-ago levels for the past 10 weeks.
In April, Friesian cows returned a high of $1.93/kg. At Feilding, prices have also held above year-ago levels before easing to $1.85/kg this week, but this was still 10c/kg higher than this time last year.
In the South, autumn has been much harsher for farmers. This week Temuka saleyards hit capacity with more than 1100 cows offered. Most Friesian types made $1.55-$1.65/kg, meeting year-ago levels.
In 2023, over 13,000 cows were sold at Temuka. To date this year, Temuka has already seen a 12% increase of throughput.
Prices for Friesian cows at Temuka have been almost identical to last year’s price trends, aside from a prolonged elevation above $2/kg through February, when processors were handing out spot premiums to maintain the flow of cows.
This article was written by AgriHQ analyst Alex Coddington. Subscribe to AgriHQ reports here.
