Returns for ewes with lambs-at-foot have certainly improved since last year but a weak mutton price may be the difference in prices not rebounding back to 2022 levels.
There are still many places across the country in the thick of lambing. For the North Island regions that are through it now, reports of survival have been mostly positive and demand for the first early-borns to hit the market has been surprisingly good.
The chaotic neutral weather pattern that has dominated through winter and now spring has turned out to be rather favorable for most new-season lambs. The right balance of just enough sun on backs and well-timed rain has meant many regions with a lot of light lambs on the ground are better set-up for growth.
As the lambing season continues, the combination of increased multiples, good survival rates, and hungry lambs has meant there has been an early uptick of ewes with lambs-at-foot trading in the paddock. This has eased prices $10 or so in the past fortnight to around $90-$100.
It could be expected that the market will continue to be tested as the season progresses. Despite this, a finished lamb price on the rise has contributed to a more positive outlook for traders. There are many regular buyers who are also reporting better confidence in feed and faster growth rates, driving demand for ewes and lambs out of the hole they were stuck in last year.
Tightening feed budgets have also increased the volume of ewes with lambs-at-foot in the saleyards, where farmers are seizing the opportunity to lighten the load, supported by firmer returns.
Last year, supply at Stortford Lodge didn’t build until September 13, and even then demand was soft as the only pens not passed in fetched $60-$85 all counted. This year’s first sale featuring 200 ewes and lambs took place on August 21 when the better pens with older lambs fetched $101 to $107 all counted, while those with lighter-condition ewes or smaller lambs sold for $81 to $95.
At Feilding on September 13, 286 ewes and lambs were yarded. Better pens fetched $101-$116 all counted while the rest traded at $81-$97. The following week at Stortford Lodge, there was a clear preference for a larger docked lamb as pens that fitted the bill fetched $103-$108 while pens of smaller lambs made $80-$90.
Overall in the yards this year, ewes with lambs-at-foot at Stortford Lodge and Feilding are averaging $90 and $88 respectively, an improvement from last year when averages were $69 and $65. However, still less than previous years as, from 2018 through to 2022, averages were in the range of $96-$123.
This will most likely be related to the dynamic of the current mutton price. The five-year average mutton price for the month of September is $5.29/kg. Mutton schedules are currently operating near an average of $3.50/kg, the highest it has been all year. However, this is an improvement on this time last year when the mutton price was declining to around $3.30/kg. Almost all New Zealand mutton is exported to China, which is currently showing weak demand for most imported commodities including red meat.
More: This article was written by AgriHQ analyst Alex Coddington. Subscribe to AgriHQ reports here.
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