Beef + Lamb New Zealand has flagged what it calls a notable decline in sheep and cattle numbers as at June 30, compared with 12 months before.
Its annual stock number survey attributes the continuing decline to forestry, drought and low prices.
While in recent years the primary driver for lower livestock numbers has been land use changes, this time it is drought effects in key sheep and beef regions, BLNZ said.
Sheep numbers are estimated to have fallen by 4.3%, down to 23.31 million, with breeding ewe numbers falling by 2.9% and trading sheep stock numbers down 7.9%.
These numbers are among the largest annual percentage decreases surveyed in the past decade, directly impacting the sustainability of farming and rural communities.
“Farmers sought to maintain their breeding ewes and decreased their trading stock more,” the report says.
“The decline in ewes and a lower expected lambing percentage, also caused by drought, means the lamb crop is anticipated to fall by 4.8% (970,000 head) on last year.
“Beef cattle numbers are down 2.8% overall, most significantly in the South Island, where drought led to a 7.1% decrease, while the North Island is relatively steady, down less than 1%.”
The anticipated fall in lamb numbers this spring will result from fewer ewes and a lambing percentage fall of 3 points to 127%, BLNZ said.
The estimated lamb crop is 19.26 million, down from 20.24 million.
The number of beef cattle on June 30 was estimated to be 3.55 million, down from 3.65 million a year before.
Lower sheepmeat returns saw a shift in interest to beef cattle, whose prices remained relatively firm on last year.
Livestock that might typically be wintered were sold to improve cashflow.
Additionally, capital livestock were sold to bolster revenue and this loss of capital livestock will reduce lamb and calf crops in spring 2024 and affect future potential earnings.
There was a further shift towards dairy grazers, which provide a steady income, resulting in more dairy grazing cattle on hand at June 30.
“One possible reason for fewer older [animals], particularly bulls, on hand at June 30 is a reduction in calf-rearers due to very tight margins two years ago, creating a lack of these animals in the current market for processing.”
The largest fall in beef cattle numbers occurred in Marlborough/Canterbury, down 10%. Total sheep numbers in the region were down 12.2%.
Regional hogget numbers were down 20% and a lower proportion of ewe hoggets were mated.
“Lambs that would typically be grown for processing over winter on hill country were sold store or processed earlier than usual at lighter weights.”
The most severe and prolonged dry period occurred in the north, especially Hurunui, Tasman and Marlborough districts. But production-limiting effects were felt as far south as Mackenzie, Timaru and Waitaki districts.
The national flock of breeding ewes is estimated to be 14.37 million, down 27% over the past decade.
The national herd of breeding cows is estimated to be 960,000 head, the second-lowest number in the past decade. The highest number in recent years has been 1.1 million (2019).
BLNZ chair Kate Acland said the falling numbers in the survey are concerning and the challenges of the past few years are likely to have wide-ranging and lasting repercussions.
“Our sector is an economic powerhouse, generating significant export revenue and supporting the livelihoods of thousands of Kiwis across the country, so these impacts will be felt by the whole economy,” she said.
“While current conditions are tough, the medium-term outlook remains positive.
“We have weathered downturns before, and I remain optimistic about the future.
“Worldwide demand for high-quality sustainably produced protein is growing and New Zealand is well placed to fill this demand,” she said.
