Global population trends are looming as a challenge to the dairy industry.
Cyrille Filott, a consumer food global sector strategist with Rabobank in the Netherlands, pointed out that United Nations forecasts of a world population of close to 10 billion by 2050 are 20% more than now.
But it is where that population growth is occurring and where it is not that poses a challenge to the world’s dairy producers.
Most of the growth will occur in West and East Africa, while the population trend in New Zealand’s traditional dairy markets is flat or shrinking.
In the next 25 years China’s population is forecast to fall 10% and to be significantly older than today, while the population in Europe and the Americas is forecast to be relatively stable.
The birth rate in many of our major markets such as China is below 1.5, much lower than the replacement rate of 2.2.
Filott told Farmers Weekly this will have a significant impact on demand for infant formula.
“It’s not a case of can we feed the world, I think we can, but who do we feed and how?”
Processors such as Danone have identified this trend and are releasing products aimed at older people.
“If we think of the next generation, what do we need to prepare for? We are facing a very different problem but we have a very different opportunity.”
More: Wallace is visiting seven countries in six weeks to report on market sentiment, a trip made possible with grants from Fonterra, Silver Fern Farms, Alliance, Beef + Lamb NZ, NZ Meat Industry Association and Rabobank. Read more about his findings here.
In Focus Podcast | Methane busting in the Netherlands
Reporter Neal Wallace checks in from Amsterdam and tells Bryan about his visits to Wageningen University and to a Dutch dairy farm. He says the methane research going on there is promising and NZ farmers should be aware that emissions efficiencies are improving in the EU and other key food producing countries.
