Earlier this month Farmers Weekly reported on the China-EU trade tensions and how they could create further opportunities for New Zealand dairy.
Written by Nigel Stirling, the article started by telling us that “an anti-dumping probe by the Chinese government could sideline European dairy producers and create new opportunities for New Zealand in the world’s biggest dairy import market”.
That’s good news for New Zealand as increasingly we’re living in a volatile world with a volatile trading environment.
China is the world’s biggest importer of dairy products and our largest trading partner. We need to keep them on side for the good of the country. Without China our economy would be, charitably speaking, toast.
It was, therefore, with some concern that I viewed recent statements by our prime minister concerning the new direction of our foreign policy.
I’ve been a proud supporter of New Zealand’s independent foreign policy and believe it has served us well.
We’re now told by the prime minister that “New Zealand is undertaking a foreign policy reset”. That was followed by his statement that “the days of New Zealand’s independent foreign policy are over”.
I don’t remember any discussion of that change in foreign policy direction either during the election campaign or since. It is a major issue. It needs to be publicly debated and not dictated from on high.
It seems what that reset means is cuddling up to the United States. The two current international flashpoints, Ukraine and Gaza, have the US’s footprint all over them and NZ shouldn’t be involved.
Sadly we are. We’re training Ukrainian troops in the United Kingdom. That was, in my view, a mistake by the previous government. The Ukrainian crisis will be solved by talking and not by getting involved in the military operation.
Currently Russian President Vladimir Putin is threatening war if the US and UK supply Ukraine with long-range missiles. Do we want to be involved?
Stupidly, in my view, we’re also tied up in the Middle East and, again, on the side of the US and UK. We’re involved in a force that is undertaking airstrikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Houthis claim, right or wrong, that they are targeting ships assisting Israel.
What that means is that in the two major conflicts currently affecting the world we are on the side of the US and I can’t understand why.
The argument revolving around traditional allies doesn’t wash. Yes, we fought with the US in World War II and in Vietnam. We went to Vietnam because we were promised a free trade agreement with the US, which never eventuated.
With Ukraine it seems to me that all the US and to a lesser extent NATO are doing is upping the stakes, to the tune of US$380 billion ($613bn) since January 22. The US contribution to that was US$58.5bn.
They are huge sums and have they achieved anything? I’d suggest not, except navigating us ever closer to a nuclear conflagration.
Then in the believe-it-or-not category, the US has ordered India and China to stop supplying munitions to Russia. I fail to see the difference with the US supplying arms to Ukraine and China supplying them to Russia.
Indian companies have been hit with the US reprisals and remember it is part of BRICS, the coalition of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
If we really do want an FTA with India, backing the US isn’t smart.
Then, idiotically, we’re considering joining AUKUS pillar 2, the nuclear agreement between Australia, the UK and US aimed at China. The Chinese advised against the move.
Again, stupidly in my opinion, we’re joining a US-led space initiative that “aims to deter threats in space from hostile countries”. For hostile countries read China. Defence Minister Judith Collins then told me that we “will retain operational sovereignty”. Spare me.
Then Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said that “NZ is keen to be part of the broad US-led rules-based international order”.
How? I’ve discussed Ukraine, and the Gaza conflict has been described by the United Nations as “American-sponsored genocide” to the tune of US$158bn.
That promises the same potential of a nuclear war as the Ukraine conflict.
Mr Luxon also told me he was “deliberately deepening our relationship with Five Eyes”. For the reasons I’ve outlined, why would you?
I don’t believe the US is serious about creating a rules-based world order. Look at how it’s broken the rules-based World Trade Organisation.
Another complication with the government’s move is the pending US presidential election. The Trump-Vance team has promised to raise tariffs on all imports. That won’t be good for New Zealand.
In addition, heaven only knows what that team will achieve for world order and world peace.
NZ is a trading nation that has successfully relied on an independent foreign policy. We should continue to do so.
