Food and fibre export revenue is tipped to reach $54.6 billion this year and hit a record $66.6bn in 2028, according to the latest Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries report.
Agriculture Minister Todd McClay said the achievement is testament to “the hard work and resilience of our farmers, growers, processors, fishers and foresters”.
Amid global inflation and lower demand, this year’s forecast result is a 5% dip on last year’s record $57.4bn.
However, export revenue is expected to lift significantly over the coming four years, with sustained growth forecasting a record $66.6bn in 2028.
“The coalition government has set the aspirational goal of becoming an exporting powerhouse by doubling the value of our exports in 10 years. Our food and fibre sector will be pivotal to achieving this goal,” McClay said.
“As a small exporting economy, the government is committed to easing the path for New Zealand’s exports and tackling barriers faced by our food and fibre exporters.”
Ministry for Primary Industries director-general Ray Smith said while 2024 was a challenging year for exporters, the outlook is good for 2025 and beyond.
“We really think the dairy sector will bounce back very, very strongly. You’ve got to think, in a world that’s got a growing middle class, particularly in the big countries we trade into, like China, there will be demand for protein, and climatically, New Zealand’s in a positive position.”
Smith said it is pleasing to see some of the smaller sectors perform well.
“If you think aquaculture and products like salmon – that has seen a good recovery. There’s a little bit on the mānuka honey side, poultry meat has benefited from a greater level of export. So, yeah, look, there’s, there’s some good green shoots there. And of course, the world loves our chocolate and confectionary.”
Fisheries Minister Shane Jones said the government is committed to creating an environment that would help food producers thrive.
“To grow New Zealand’s exports and continue providing vital food and fibre needed here too, we need the right settings, tools, and support for producers,” Jones said.
