He has been dubbed the United Kingdom’s favourite farmer, but Gareth Wyn Jones still does a double take at the size of his social media following.

Three Facebook videos of the North Wales farmer working with sheep attracted 710 million, 687 million and 137 million views respectively. He has 2.5 million followers on YouTube, 350,000 on Facebook, 133,600 on Tik Tok and a relatively sedate 67,000 on X (formerly Twitter).

He also fronts television news stories about farming and has made documentaries, including one where he visited Welsh farmers who had moved to New Zealand chasing better opportunities.

It is a powerful tool that the fearlessly outspoken and proud Llanfairfrechan farmer uses to promote his beloved farming sector by highlighting the issues it faces and challenging those he believes unreasonably attack it.

His motives are altruistic but there is an element of self-interest.

“It’s always about telling a story so there is a future for my three children on the land, so they can make a living.”

He is using social media to create an environment for the next generation of UK farmers.,

But it’s a platform that can be a double-edged sword.

A video last spring of him skinning a dead lamb – so he could put the pelt on an orphaned lamb to re-mother it – went viral but resulted in multiple death threats by animal welfare activists.

Police investigated and security was increased at the coastal property.

“It was lunacy. You couldn’t make this up,” Wyn Jones said.

Wyn Jones prefers to engage with critics of farming, to try to reason and provide some understanding and balance, an approach he concedes can at times be a lost cause.

Vegans, animal rights activists and politicians are all fair game, but not for him to  bully and demean, although he concedes vegan animal rights activist Joey Carbstrong riles him to the point where he calls him “little Joey”.

A few years ago Wyn Jones invited a vegan and animal rights activist who was campaigning against shearing sheep onto the farm.

A civilised conversation ensued – all relayed on social media – but even at the end she refused to touch a fleece.

UK media turn to Wyn Jones as the go-to voice of farming on issues affecting the sector.

He has debated decisions by universities not to serve animal protein in their colleges, and the National Trust, which governs the UK’s historic and protected sites, to make half their menus in their cafes and restaurants vegetarian.

Making a case is who Wyn Jones is.

“I have never been a bloke not to walk through a door that is half-open or closed. I always walk through it, I like to look at the challenges, I’m inquisitive.”

He constantly seeks solutions to problems, saying a resolution will never be achieved if people are not honest and refuse to talk to each other.

“If you’re honest, even if you disagree, you are more likely to find solutions to problems,” he says.

And that is where politicians frustrate him. They seldom give a straight answer, he said.

Integrity and honesty are values he rates highly, illustrated by fronting up and conceding to his millions of followers when he got something wrong.

Wyn Jones believes many of the problems facing farmers are the result of supermarkets and government policy severing the link between farmers and consumers and therefore an understanding of how food is produced.

Food that was once available seasonally is now stocked year-round, which removes the mystique and the appreciation of the effort required to produce it.

It becomes just another plum, tomato, strawberry or raspberry, said Wyn Jones. 

“People don’t know what the first strawberry or the first tomato of the season tastes like. They get fed this mass-produced food.”

They also no longer appreciate the value of food, with a third of all food produced globally being wasted.

“It makes no sense, how society has been removed from how food is produced.”

While prepared to confront those who attack food producers, Wyn Jones will praise those who help.

Some years ago he was at a festival attended by the then Prince Charles.

It was obvious to Wyn Jones that the Prince’s minders were wary of the Welsh farmer, perhaps considering him too outspoken and blunt, so kept the future king well away.

Undeterred and definitely not intimidated, Wyn Jones spied an opening and  strode up to the Prince shook his hand and said: “I am not a royalist, but I really appreciate everything you are doing for the countryside.”

Prince Charles was quickly shuffled away by his minders, but the two later had a further conversation.

“The guy was cool,” said Wyn Jones, and deserves praise for what he is doing for farmers, running several properties and promoting British produce.

Wyn Jones has met numerous politicians and said he tells it as he sees it.

Given 15 minutes with former prime minister Rishi Sunak, he gave him both barrels about the sorry plight of farmers. Given a similar opportunity to talk to the Welsh Parliament, he didn’t hold back, lambasting their plans to plant 10% of Wales in trees and allowing 15% to revert to natural habitat.

The net effect, he said, is that 20% of farms will be out of business.

Still to meet new UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, Wyn Jones has specific concerns about the impact of possible tax changes on farm succession and the management of bovine tuberculosis.

“We have to protect our livelihoods or there will be nothing for the next generation wanting to get onto the land,” he said.

Wyn Jones believes government policy has created an imbalance in favour of sequestering carbon and against the production of affordable food and which totally ignores the role of livestock.

Trees should be planted in the right place and hedgerows nurtured and managed, but he said the contribution of livestock in the carbon cycle should be acknowledged.

He argues that livestock eat vegetation which then sequesters carbon into the soil as it regrows, while also providing nutrient-dense food, employment and underpinning rural communities.

“What I produce is top quality lamb and beef in a sustainable way,” he said.

“This is sheep and cattle country, that is all it can produce. I could not get a combine onto this land, it’s far too steep.”

Farmers were guilty of overgrazing in the 1970s and 1980s, encouraged to do so by government headage payments, but Wyn Jones argues that going by the extent with which livestock numbers have fallen, the opposite could be the case now.

He has debated the future of agriculture at the Oxford Union with journalist and farming critic George Monbiot but says former rock star, Queen guitarist Brian May, an outspoken ally of badgers, will not debate with him the role of badgers in spreading bovine tuberculosis and the impact on farmers.

A UK issue, it has become personal for Wyn Jones, with a close friend forced to sell his farm after his 180 cows were slaughtered due to an outbreak of the disease.

The farm was a disease hot spot, costing him £30,000 ($64,000) a month, and he could not rid of it.

Wyn Jones wants a scientific approach with badgers tested for the disease so those infected can be culled instead of the end recipient.

As badger numbers have exploded, Wyn Jones said, the number of hedgehogs and ground birds on his farm has plummeted, preyed on by the native Mustelidae.

The Wyn Jones family have been on the Llanfairfechan farm for 375 years and he is motivated to ensure his ancestors can be there for another 375 years and more.

It is getting tough.

The average age of farmers in the UK is 67 and getting a start on the land is difficult – and could become even more so if the Labour government fulfils a promise to change inheritance tax rules, which will make succession more costly. 

Where once there were 15,000 sheep grazing the wider Llanfairfechan area, Wyn Jones said there are about 9000 today

Gareth and Rhian are both passionate about the Welsh language and the history of their community.

That includes helping manage a herd of rare Carneddau ponies, of which there are just 220 breeding mares left.

Since Celtic times they have roamed the 11,000 hectare Carneddau mountains, a vast national park that borders the Wyn Jones farm.

Ancient neolithic axe heads discovered in Europe were found to have come from his Llanfairfechan farm up to 6000 years ago.

Wyn Jones has discovered buildings on the Carneddau mountains dating back hundreds if not thousands of years.

His social media role is a seven-day a week business, attracting product endorsements and requiring a support network that includes Rhian, content manager Dewi Jones and two of their three children, Sior and Mari. They have a second son, Rolant.

They are also diversifying.

Their farm hosts weekly immersive tourism for much of the year. That includes working sheep dog displays and giving tourists a hands-on involvement in farm activities.

“It’s culturally not just a farm tour, it’s telling our story and engaging people in everything that we do here,” he said. 

The 240ha home farm is still part of a family company formed by his grandfather, who had five sons.

The company owns 600ha and rents another 200ha split between three blocks, on which they run 4000 sheep, 120 cows, including single suckers, and another 340 cattle.

The predominantly Limousin breed is being shifted to Hereford, which he said suits the country.

They finish stock and grow silage.

Wyn Jones said the farm is a perfect foil for the intensity of his media work, but increasingly his public profile means people with major challenges reach out to him for help and advice.

Mental health is a huge issue among UK farmers and Wyn Jones has dealt with several who have found themselves struggling to cope financially or mentally.

He directs them to services that can assist, but it provides a further reminder of the many challenges facing the sector he loves.

Wyn Jones finds solace in getting out on the farm which he says is defined perfectly in a Welsh proverb: Lle i enaid gael llonydd – a place for the soul to find peace.

More: Wallace is visiting seven countries in six weeks to report on market sentiment, a trip made possible with grants from Fonterra, Silver Fern Farms, Alliance, Beef + Lamb NZ, NZ Meat Industry Association and Rabobank.  Read more about his findings here. 

Returns for ewes with lambs-at-foot have certainly improved since last year but a weak mutton price may be the difference in prices not rebounding back to 2022 levels. 

There are still many places across the country in the thick of lambing. For the North Island regions that are through it now, reports of survival have been mostly positive and demand for the first early-borns to hit the market has been surprisingly good.  

The chaotic neutral weather pattern that has dominated through winter and now spring has turned out to be rather favorable for most new-season lambs. The right balance of just enough sun on backs and well-timed rain has meant many regions with a lot of light lambs on the ground are better set-up for growth. 

As the lambing season continues, the combination of increased multiples, good survival rates, and hungry lambs has meant there has been an early uptick of ewes with lambs-at-foot trading in the paddock. This has eased prices $10 or so in the past fortnight to around $90-$100. 

It could be expected that the market will continue to be tested as the season progresses. Despite this, a finished lamb price on the rise has contributed to a more positive outlook for traders. There are many regular buyers who are also reporting better confidence in feed and faster growth rates, driving demand for ewes and lambs out of the hole they were stuck in last year.

Tightening feed budgets have also increased the volume of ewes with lambs-at-foot in the saleyards, where farmers are seizing the opportunity to lighten the load, supported by firmer returns. 

Last year, supply at Stortford Lodge didn’t build until September 13, and even then demand was soft as the only pens not passed in fetched $60-$85 all counted. This year’s first sale featuring 200 ewes and lambs took place on August 21 when the better pens with older lambs fetched $101 to $107 all counted, while those with lighter-condition ewes or smaller lambs sold for $81 to $95.

At Feilding on September 13, 286 ewes and lambs were yarded. Better pens fetched $101-$116 all counted while the rest traded at $81-$97. The following week at Stortford Lodge, there was a clear preference for a larger docked lamb as pens that fitted the bill fetched $103-$108 while pens of smaller lambs made $80-$90. 

Overall in the yards this year, ewes with lambs-at-foot at Stortford Lodge and Feilding are averaging $90 and $88 respectively, an improvement from last year when averages were $69 and $65. However, still less than previous years as, from 2018 through to 2022, averages were in the range of $96-$123. 

This will most likely be related to the dynamic of the current mutton price. The five-year average mutton price for the month of September is $5.29/kg. Mutton schedules are currently operating near an average of $3.50/kg, the highest it has been all year. However, this is an improvement on this time last year when the mutton price was declining to around $3.30/kg. Almost all New Zealand mutton is exported to China, which is currently showing weak demand for most imported commodities including red meat. 

More: This article was written by AgriHQ analyst Alex Coddington. Subscribe to AgriHQ reports here.

In Focus Podcast | Sheep outlook: the future of our flock

Sheep farmers are doing it tough right now, with farmgate returns dropping back after a few good years and input costs rising. Add to that the march of pine trees across the land, and there’s talk of an existential crisis. Bryan asked AgriHQ senior analyst Mel Croad to give him the lay of the land and asked her what the sector needed to do to find prosperity again.

Angus yearling bulls sold readily during the first half of September and the spring bull sale season.

Stokman Angus in Waikite Valley, Central Plateau, made a top price of $30,000 for Stokman U295, bought by McFadzean Cattle Company in Wairarapa.

McFadzean also paid $15,000 for a Stokman bull, as did Taimate Angus, Marlborough.

Despite some access worries with highway repairs, Stokman had a complete clearance of 114 yearling bulls with an average price of $5337 and also sold 40 heifers in the price rage $1650 to $2100. 

Kayjay Angus, Masterton, made a top price of $24,500 for Kayjay Mountain Man U758, paid by Shian Angus, Taumarunui.

Kayjay Mountain Man U722 sold to Turiroa Angus for $15,000.

Stud principal Rod Kjestrup said these are the first two sons sold at auction from $92,500 sire Meadowslea Mountain Man 705, born in 2020 and bought in 2022 for a season record price.

Kayjay sold 17 out of 17 in the catalogue and averaged $8541, more than twice that of last year.

McFadzean Cattle Company sold its Meatmaker and Super Angus yearling bulls to a top price of $16,000, paid by long-time supporters Luce and George Williams, Grassendale Genetics, Masterton.

A total of 28 bulls sold from 31 offered in the two composite breeds made an average price of $7313, well in advance of last year’s $4220.

McFadzean’s Cruizy Calves bulls sold 75 out of 79 offered with an average of $3820.

At the top price of $11,000, lot 36 sold to Patrick and Micheal Beech, Bullock Hills Station and lot 50 drew the same price from Logan Evans, Mount Peel Station, both returning purchasers.

Turihaua Angus, Gisborne, sold all 25 yearling bulls for an average $7908 and all went to commercial farms, including $10,500 made twice.

Waitangi Angus, Bay of Islands, sold 64 out of 89 and averaged $4050, with a top of $9500 paid by Waitangi Terraces, Gisborne.

There were also three transfers to Hingaia Angus, Gisborne.

Mahuta Herefords, Tuakau, had a full clearance of 64 bulls and a top price of $11,000 paid by Otapawa Herefords.

The average for the sale was $3803.

Kairaumati Herefords, Turua, sold 29 two-year bulls averaging $3517 and 19 yearlings averaging $2800.

In Taranaki service bulls sold quickly and regional livestock manager Steve Quinnell reported the prices for NZ Farmers Livestock.

Tawanui sold 70 two-year Herefords averaging $3460 and 40 two-year Angus bulls averaging $2860

Penny Lane sold 100 Hereford two-year-old averaging $2950, 20 Angus averaging $2930 and 100 Jersey bulls averaging $2525.

Burmeister sold 60 high BW Jersey yearling bulls averaging $1900.

Shadow Downs Herefords sold 12 yearling bulls and 48 two-year bulls averaging $3210 with a top of $6200.

Puketahi sold 30 two-year Herefords averaging $3360, 20 two-year Angus averaging $2860, 10 two- and three-year Murray Greys averaging $2700 and 50 two-year Jerseys averaging $2360.

Megaw sold 30 two-year Herefords averaging $2950, 25 two-year Angus averaging $2500, 20 two-year Friesians averaging $2300, 25 two-year Ayrshires averaging $2230, 170 two-year Jerseys averaging $2350 and 15 18-month-olds averaging $1950.

OSPRI has apologised to farmers and its shareholders after major flaws were found in a technology upgrade project.

An independent review of its Information Systems Strategic Programme (ISSP) identified issues with the technology project that was meant to integrate its animal disease management and traceability systems.

The review identified problems in every aspect of the programme, including the way it was governed and the suitability of the technology itself.

Chair Dr Paul Reynolds said OSPRI had let itself and its stakeholders down.

“The OSPRI board and management apologise to farmers and partner organisations that the improvements promised have not been delivered in a timely manner.”

Reynolds stressed that this issue did not impact OSPRI’s current disease management and animal tracing systems.

“There is no risk to the assurances needed for export purposes and our shareholders can be assured that with their continued participation, our warning systems are as good as any in the world.”

Early progress on developing the new platform went well, but Reynolds said delays and cost concerns raised the alarm.

“The board was asking questions and receiving assurances and it put in independent reviewers to check on progress and to ask the question, ‘Is it reasonable for us to assume that this platform is going to be delivered on time or within the new timeframe, and is going to be successful?’

“And we received those assurances. However, delays continued and our former chief executive was increasingly uncomfortable and in the end the board decided that we would pause the program.”

Reynolds said the independent review made it clear that the project would not deliver what was required.

“Most importantly, and catastrophically, [the review found] issues with the complexity of the technology, platforms and architecture. It became increasingly apparent that what ultimately was going to be built was just going to be ruinously expensive to run. 

“So we had issues about the complexity of the platform, issues in the program, about its timely delivery. But even if all that was swept away, we came to the understanding that the costs of running it would be ridiculously high.”

In a joint statement, shareholders Beef + Lamb NZ, Deer Industry NZ and DairyNZ said they were incredibly disappointed with OSPRI’s performance.

“We are working with the OSPRI board and recently appointed chief executive to take urgent steps to get this project back on track. Shareholders have added representatives to the OSPRI board’s ISSP sub-committee to ensure additional expertise is available to recommend the way forward.”

The OSPRI shareholders, in consultation with the Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI), have also initiated an independent review of the OSPRI governance framework.

“The review has made a number of recommendations for strengthening OSPRI’s governance and shareholder oversight. The shareholders are discussing the governance recommendations with OSPRI and OSPRI’s other funder, MPI, and have committed to all involved that changes will be made promptly over the next few months.”

Reynolds said he acknowledged the criticism.

“I think that in hindsight, the business case could have been clearer, more robust, more fulsome. I think the level of clarity around what was needed was probably not there.”

OSPRI is now working to fix key programme management foundations, is simplifying the new platform’s architecture and prioritising the replacement of the NAIT system, Reynolds said. 

“OSPRI is confident that the measures implemented in response to the review will enable us to deliver a NAIT replacement system that meets the needs of New Zealand’s primary sector.”

There will be a significant impairment to the value of the current MyOSPRI asset, but the figure is yet to be confirmed.

Chief executive Sam McIvor said as well as the independent review, he is taking a “deep dive” into the technology in the business.

“We’ve pulled in some expertise to do that and I guess that will give us the clear path on whether we fix what’s been built, or is it an alternative route, for example, of starting again. We’re deep into that process at the moment.”

McIvor stressed that the development of the new NAIT system user interface, created in collaboration with farmers, has progressed well and will be used.

In Focus Podcast | A new strategy for advocacy

AGMARDT and KPMG have released a report that offers a new way of organising our advocacy networks. Common Ground assesses the positives and negatives of the advocacy groups we have now and sets out a strategy that could improve the collaboration and messaging emanating from the farming world. AGMARDT general manager Lee-Ann Marsh joins Bryan to discuss the report.

Colraine Herefords at Ohaupo, near Hamilton, has set a yearling bull price record for the breed of $37,000 in what is only the second on-farm auction for the stud.  

Colraine Washington 23 421 was bought by Mahuta Herefords and sold with a guaranteed one-year dairy semen contract from LIC for 10,000 straws.

He was independently identified by LIC beef genetics team as the very top Hereford yearling bull, suited to what the dairy beef semen market is demanding. 

John and Mary Allen, Mahuta Herefords at Tuakau, will still hold all semen rights for the beef cattle market in NZ and overseas.

Colraine principal Colin Corney said the sale vindicates a 10-year dedicated breeding programme focusing on calving ease, growth and a drive to improve eye muscle area along with intramuscular fat.

“The improvements are due to us working along with our good friend Dave Warburton, a production veterinarian who set up a group of breeders to join him importing genetics from the United States, Canada and Australia to help lift key traits within the NZ Hereford population.  

“On top of this we have invested heavily in recording as much as we can on all our animals to provide a genetic package that is as reliable as possible.”

Colraine sold all 10 of its bulls and averaged $6100, compared with last year’s $3480.

The sale was in conjunction with Kanuka Polled Herefords, which sold eight out of eight and averaged $3112 with a top of $4200 for Kanuka Seismic 2302.

The third vendor was Arabica Herefords with a complete clearance of nine bulls, averaging $2733 and a top of $3200 paid by Tawanui Herefords.

Waimaire and Otengi Herefords at Kaeo in the Far North kicked off the spring bull sale season with a top price of $9500 for a yearling paid by Bluff Herefords.

The average price paid for two-year-olds was $3960, with a top of $5000, and the averages for 18-month and two-year bulls were $2943 and $3851 respectively.

Bluff Herefords at Glenbrook, South Auckland, had a full clearance of 48 bulls, averaged $3389, nearly $1000 up on last year, and had a top price of $7700 paid by Streamlands Herefords.

Staying in Northland, Te Atarangi Angus at Te Kopuru had a complete clearance of 120 bulls and averaged $3856 compared with last year’s $3457.

Top price was $8500 paid by J Marchant.

Maranui Herefords and Angus at Waihi cleared the offering of 25 Herefords and 14 Angus, averaging $3000 and $3614 respectively.

Top price was $11,500 paid by Matapara Angus at Te Puke.

Totaranui Angus, Pahiatua, sold 76 of 79 bulls offered, averaged $4453 and had a top of $9000 paid by Ross Bolt of Horoeka.

Craigmore Herefords at Ohaupo sold 97 bulls with an average of $3037 and top prices of $6000 paid by Riverton Herefords and $5000 paid by Colraine Herefords.

Hoobees Herefords, Coroglen at Coromandel, sold 10 of 10 offered and averaged $4570 with a top of $8000 paid by Te Puna Herefords.

By Annette Scott and Gerald Piddock.

The earliest spring pasture flush in recent years across large parts of the country, coupled with rising processor schedules, has created the perfect storm for the store cattle market.

The sudden price spike in store values at saleyards, especially in the South Island, has been influenced by the autumn drought that brought good numbers of both prime and store cattle to the market, PGG Wrightson livestock manager Joe Higgins said.

“There’s also been minimal numbers of beef cross calves retained in the dairy industry and there’s no doubting the recent strengthening in the market has been fuelled by confidence from the surge of early spring pasture growth.”

Most processor schedules are $1.10-$1.25/kg stronger than a year ago, hovering around the $7 mark.

“This would be the best store beef prices I can recall for this time of the season.  

“There is positivity; farmers are sitting in pretty comfortable. The market has reached its pinnacle and holding. 

“I wouldn’t like to say whether it’s market or procurement driven, but the positivity is there so we’re good to run with that,” Higgins said.                 

Hazlett livestock manager Ed Marfell said the early spring pasture flush coupled with the large number of calves that went to the North Island earlier, clearing out the yearling stock numbers in the South Island, has impacted the market.

“A lot of calves left Canterbury with the autumn drought, and we have certainly felt the recent buying power of the North Island pushing exceptional prices across the board and above expectation.

“We have seen huge inquiry from the North Island for young stock and two-year cattle and once they cross the water they don’t come back to the mainland.

“These are not one-off sales, these hyped sales have been going for a month or so and while the market down here is strong, we are not at the level of the North.”

The agents said the margin would be reasonable for farmers selling prime stock at $7/kg and who have done their sums; they can afford to buy replacements, despite the inflated store market.

“Farmers want something to eat the grass and make money and if replacing killed prime stock it’s not a problem, it can be justified paying in the current store market.

“If not replacing sold prime stock, it could be more of a gamble for later on.”                        

According to NZX data, growth rates in Canterbury for the August–September period have been above average while the rest of the country is similar to previous years.

Waikato-based PGW agent Vaughan Larsen described the prices at the weekly cattle sale at Frankton as “ballistic”.

“In the last two months, there doesn’t seem to be anything holding it back. It’s a perfect storm for the store price.”

Heifers are selling at $4.55/kg LW, which equated to over $1000 for a 250kg animal, 430kg two-year heifers averaged $3.58/kg, up around $1/kg LW on 12 months ago.

It is not just store prices. The prime market remains strong and the price for manufacturing beef from cull cows is also high.

“It’s across the board, there doesn’t seem to be a hole in any of the markets.”

AgriHQ senior analyst Mel Croad noted in the latest Livestock Outlook report for September that farmgate beef prices for bull, prime and local trade are sitting at record highs for this time of the year. 

AgriHQ data shows that due to the lack of killable cattle through winter, prime and local trade prices have lifted by double their usual amount since June. 

“This boosted confidence and it’s clear there is a lot riding on the beef job to hold up through spring to ensure on-farm returns are met. 

“Although we have very strong prices now, the general trend is for slaughter prices to seasonally ease as we get closer to summer.

By how much will be determined by export demand and how quickly spring cattle supplies build, Croad said.

“We can’t overlook the fact that much of the recent upside has been driven by a lack of cattle rather than soaring export demand.” 

New directions for live dairy cattle exports could see New Zealand competing with Australia in a hunt for new and emerging market opportunities. 

Any re-start of NZ live cattle exports is expected to face headwinds against the slowdown in Chinese demand as bearish farm sector fundamentals in China point to slower trade for the foreseeable future, according to a new industry report.     

The just-released Rabobank report – New Directions for Oceania Live Dairy Cattle Exports – shows NZ’s focus on dairy heifers to China was a lucrative market for farmers across much of the past decade, offering significant trade opportunities and attractive prices for dairy cattle. 

But with a government ban on live animal exports by sea in place since April last year, and Chinese demand for dairy heifers waning, future prospects for the sector are far less certain, report author RaboResearch senior dairy analyst Michael Harvey said.

Recently, a change of government in NZ has prompted discussions of a possible shift in policy, with potential changes surrounding a restart in live exports via sea including “gold standard” rules for animal welfare, along with purpose-built ships. 

Public consultation on the possible reinstatement of livestock export by sea is likely to kick off by the end of 2024. 

Meanwhile, Harvey said the topic has historically been divisive in the farming community, so uncertainty prevails in the short term as to whether trade will be reinstated. 

He said the broader policy environment around live exports in Australia, NZ’s main source of competition for live exports prior to the ban, is also far from clear. 

“While there has been no shift in policy on the live exports of dairy cattle, in May 2024 the federal government announced that the export of live sheep by sea from Australia will end on May 1 2028.”  

Should NZ trade of live animal exports be reinstated at some stage in the future, Harvey said, given the slowdown in Chinese demand, Kiwi exporters would likely encounter a markedly slower market. 

Oceania live dairy cattle trade volumes peaked at 233,000 head in 2022, with a combined total of 815,000 dairy cows exported from Australia and NZ between 2018-2023. 

“However, by mid-2024, the flow of dairy heifers from Australia and NZ to China has slowed to barely a trickle due to a combination of NZ’s ban on exports along with a slowdown in Chinese demand, resulting in an annual decline of 83%.”

Unsurprisingly, the drop in trade with China has taken a heavy toll on indicative pricing in the market for live dairy cattle exports. 

Based on RaboResearch analysis of Australian export data, the indicative Australian export FOB price per dairy cow peaked at US$3000 in 2022 but fell to US$1500 per head in 2023. 

“The growth journey of China’s milk supply, a key driver of increased heifer exports, is at a critical juncture.” 

The industry is grappling with an oversupply of raw milk, leading to falling local milk prices and lower farm profitability.

Moving forward, a recovery in Chinese heifer demand is possible, but it will require a combination of improved milk prices, increased farm profitability, and further government policy to support farm expansion and herd rebuilding. 

“Bearish farm sector fundamentals in China, a market that is irreplaceable, point to slower live export trade for the foreseeable future.” 

Southeast Asian markets, including Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines, are a largely milk-deficit region, with self-sufficiency rates ranging from 1% to 50%. Based on RaboResearch modelling, the combined import deficit totalled more than 10 billion litres of liquid milk equivalent in 2023. 

More recently there has been a renewed focus on local herd expansion and milk supply growth, through private and public investment, across some southeast Asian economies to specifically address supply chain and milk price risks. 

This initiative secures a small but steady flow of live dairy heifer exports into the region. 

Reduced demand from China provides a more attractive opportunity for buyers in southeast Asia, which might lead to an increase in trade moving forward.

But as history shows, the southeast Asian region cannot replace China in volume terms, with annual volumes never surpassing 25,000 cows. 

During the recent cycle between 2018-2023, China consistently accounted for over 80% of all heifer export numbers from Australia and NZ.

So, Harvey said, “the hunt may well be on for new and emerging market opportunities”.

Allied Farmers Limited has reported an audited net profit after tax for the year to June 30 of $5.2 million, an increase of 55.96% from the previous year.

The increase was driven by a one-off $4.2m gain on the book value of the sale and licence-back by New Zealand Farmers Livestock Limited of its interest in the Frankton saleyards, of which $2.8m was attributable to Allied Farmers’ shareholders.

Excluding this one-off gain, NZ Rural Land Management Limited earnings were significantly higher than FY23 on the back of management, performance and transaction fees from a number of NZ Rural Land Company Limited (NZL) transactions, but this was largely offset by lower earnings from NZ Farmers Livestock Limited.

NZ Farmers Livestock, 67.8% owned by AFL, grappled with a very challenging 2023/24 year, but reported a solid operating earnings result.

The veal operation and livestock agency both contributed positively to the result but were down on the previous year.

This reflected cost inflation in the face of a small reduction in agency revenues. 

Poor sheep prices and tallies reflected current market challenges, but cattle pricing (and tallies) remained relatively strong. 

Dairy herd forward sales performance was creditable and remains an important focus going forward.

The sale of NZFL’s interest in the Frankton saleyards was coupled with an access licence back to NZFL, and therefore NZFL’s access to and use of the yards is consistent with prior to the sale.

The recent recovery in sheep pricing and strengthening cattle pricing are encouraging for the current year.

In the face of cost inflation, the business has focused on improving productivity, cost structure, capital efficiency and driving our developing digital platform and presence. Work through the year should position us well within an improving agribusiness environment.

Livestock financing, based around the Heartland-supported and own lending offerings, continued the growth forecast in earlier market updates, and its support of the core business, to increase its contribution.

In Focus Podcast: Full Show | 23 August

Calls for a national food strategy are growing as the cost of living crisis leaves many unable to afford nutritious food here, despite living in a food producing powerhouse. Lincoln University’s Professor Alan Renwick says it will take a holistic approach as there are many aspects to consider.

Then, new data from Farm Focus highlights the significant financial challenges farmers have faced over the past year. The agri-business software platform supports $9 billion in farming annual income, an analysis of which paints a clear picture of what farming businesses are facing. Bryan speaks with Farm Focus CEO Auriga Martin.

And, Federated Farmers says the terms of reference announced for the upcoming inquiry into rural banking will leave the banks nowhere to hide. Its banking spokesperson Richard McIntyre says there had been a concern that the terms would limit the reach of the inquiry, but those fears have been allayed.

The latest Beef + Lamb New Zealand stock number survey has revised the estimated breeding ewe flock as at June 2024 a million lower, from an earlier forecast of 15.34 million to 14.37 milion.

The information is contained in the latest BLNZ livestock survey, which reveals a 4.3% decline in total sheep numbers and 2.8% drop in beef numbers, which is attributed to land use change and drought.

BLNZ insight and communications manager Rowena Hume said the discrepancy is due to the timing of data collection between it and StatsNZ, the time lag between when a farm is sold for forestry and when stock are finally removed, and where those animals actually go.

In some cases it can be more than two years between the sale of land and stock leaving a property.

“The issue is the speed of land use change,” she said.

The impact of drought has been another factor.

BLNZ sources its data from a survey of 500 farms while Stats NZ gets its data six months later, which makes it more current. It also has input from other government departments.

Hume said StatsNZ revised lower earlier forecast sheep numbers, which obliged BLNZ to follow suit.

BLNZ, StatsNZ and the Ministry for Primary Industries are working more closely to get a more accurate picture and better access to data such as forest planting.

Meanwhile, Australia continues to set new lamb processing records.

Meat and Livestock Australia has announced 7.2 million  lambs were slaughtered in the three months to June, the highest quarterly kill on record.

The combined sheep and lamb kill was up 16% on the same period last year at 9.9 million, the highest since 1973.

A significant 177,147 tonnes of lamb was processed in the quarter, 19% more than for the same period a year earlier.

In Focus Podcast |  NZ food system in disarray

Calls for a national food strategy are growing as the cost of living crisis leaves many unable to afford nutritious food here, despite living in a food producing powerhouse.

Lincoln University’s Professor Alan Renwick says it will take a holistic approach as there are many aspects to consider – health, social development, commerce and agriculture. He says the changing climate will force us to rethink how we produce food and where.

North Island slaughter rates typically don’t bottom out until September, but this year supply has been tight since mid-June. With processors under pressure to meet orders, they’ve been increasing farmgate returns for prime cattle, and store market prices for yearling cattle have been lifting in tandem.

In the past six weeks, average paddock prices for heavy R1 steers in the North Island have risen from $3.80/kg to $4.20/kg, while prime steer prices have increased from $6.40/kg to $7.00/kg. 

This has kept the store value of R1 steers at a normal range of 59-60% of the schedule. Though current cattle values are high, confidence in the market has previously pushed yearling steer values closer to 65%.

Milder winter conditions and early autumn destocking have intensified demand, making saleyards a preferred selling option. Most store trading now occurs at auction, above paddock values. The heat of the market has been a good incentive for some to tidy up numbers so while the volume of cattle in yards has been increasing through August, quality hasn’t quite been comparable to previous years in regions with early offloads and dry conditions.

R1 steers at Stortford Lodge were on average 40kg lighter than last year, Rangiuru 25kg lighter, and Feilding 12kg lighter. Prices at these saleyards are up 60-80c/kg compared to last year. Conversely, yearling steers at Wellsford were 43kg heavier on average, Taranaki 12kg heavier, and Matawhero 18kg heavier, with prices up 30c/kg to 68c/kg. Frankton saw the smallest weight change but the largest price increase, up 87c/kg from last year.

For some, the lifts to the store market have been too hot, too fast. Feilding has been in a league of its own when it comes to yearlings, with an average price this month of $4.44/kg, or 63% of the schedule, followed by Stortford and Taranaki at $4.36-$4.37/kg, and Wellsford at $4.00/kg. 

The astounding per-head prices required to secure replacement cattle now have a fair amount of people holding on to what they have, as long as weather conditions allow, only adding to market supply pressures.

Where to next for store cattle prices will be largely dependent on domestic supply moving forward. With so much pressure still on the procurement of finished cattle, there is no doubt processors will be looking to balance out losses when numbers better match capacity. In other words, current store cattle prices are relatively in line with schedules but don’t match up with current market signals. 

Although the United States remains hungry for beef, a strong presence in this market from Australia and Brazil is rectifying these shortages. Economic downturn has put China’s demand for beef on the back burner, while its own low domestic meat prices have kept demand from our once-largest consumer below average all year. 

With high spring prices brought forward, there is an increased risk of an early change in direction if and when numbers pick up. Assuming store market values stay in line with farmgate prices, there is a likelihood of store cattle values falling almost as quickly as they rose.  

This month’s North Island Livestock Outlook report forecasts prime steer schedules to drop 40c/kg more between October and January than it did the same period last year.  For more in-depth analysis on global red meat markets and farmgate price projections for the next six months, sign up to Livestock Outlook, August issue out now. Visit agrihq.co.nz/livestock-reports