Statisticians are looking into how last year’s provisional sheep count was out by 700,000 head.
Stats NZ’s final census analysis revised the nation’s provisional 2023 sheep flock tally from just over 25 million announced in December 2023, to a final figure of 24.3 million announced this month, following further analysis and checking.
The figures are compiled from Stats NZ’s annual Agriculture Production Survey, and used by Beef + Lamb NZ and the meat industry as the basis for their forecasts and planning.
“The first look is quick and at a national level, which feeds into BLNZ and the Ministry for Primary Industries,” said Stuart Jones, Stats NZ Environmental and agricultural statistics team manager.
“After that we have a more thorough check and identify any duplication as it goes through our systems and processes.”
He concedes the 700,000 discrepancy was larger than usual.
For the 2022 year the provisional number was 25.3 million, which was eventually revised to 25.1 million.
A recent meeting between Stats NZ and BLNZ concluded both have confidence in the 2023 sheep numbers.
BLNZ is confident the data is consistent with its regional breakdown and its Farm Economic Survey results.
Jones said Stats NZ is looking to improve the accuracy of its data by challenging it with other sources, but ultimately it is up to farmers to fill in the census.
Among other uses, the data assists with primary sector and government projections and planning, forming policy in areas such as health, education, trade and migration, Treasury projections and providing farm input and output information.
Stats NZ concluded that a farm-led boycott of the 2022 census saw 0.29% of forms not returned, but BLNZ say the low survey returns, which have averaged about 69% in 2022 and 2023, could be an issue.
“We would always like higher rates of course, and the non-response rate does increase our sample errors, but these are still within acceptable limits as per the design of the survey thanks to the tens of thousands of farmers who did fill it out,” Jones said.
A BLNZ spokesperson attributed the revised sheep numbers to complexity in accounting for the timing and change in stock numbers from the conversion of sheep and beef farms to forestry, and to low census return rates.
December’s provisional data reflects total sheep numbers as at June 30 that same year, with the number of ewes calculated at 63% of that total.
BLNZ use these provisional figures along with the revised numbers for June 30 2022 for its mid-season update.
A BLNZ spokesperson said the discrepancy does raise questions about available animals for processing for the rest of this year.
“There is heightened uncertainty in actual sheep and beef cattle numbers at present due to afforestation, and when the sheep and beef cattle capital stock leave farms that have been sold into forestry to go to processing,” the spokesperson said.
From July 1 2022 to June 30 2023, the mutton slaughter was actually 217,000 lower than in the same period for the previous year, so does not provide an answer for the recent decline in ewe numbers.
“One possibility is that these ewes are still on forestry blocks while tree seedlings are obtained to be planted, [so] the ewes are not owned by the farmer who sold to forestry and may have missed the inventory count.
“If this is true, then a bigger ewe kill could occur next year as forestry planting catches up and ewes are processed.”
